The present invention relates to a method of predicting an initial input of a new product which is for predicting a sales volume or market share at the launch of the new product, a system for predicting an initial input of a new product which is for predicting a sales volume or market share at the launch of the new product, and a recording medium which can be read with a computer and which stores a program which causes a computer to predict a sales volume or market share at the launch of the new product.
To quickly provide excellent products to a market at low prices is becoming an essential strategy for a company which manufactures and sells products in order to survive in a competition in business, and a cycle of this is becoming shorter and shorter. Meanwhile, how large a share (a market share) would be and how large the production should be based on what level of a predictive volume, i.e., a quantity of the initial launch (an initial input) is an issue for the launch of a new product into a market.
While prediction mechanisms and systems assuming that a future volume is an extension of a past volume have heretofore been already provided, mainly used among methods of predicting an initial input of a new product has been a method which applies a trend of an existing similar product with reference to a past record of actual sales, shipment and the like or a method which uses preceding experiences, hunch or a wide variety of techniques such as statistical schemes.
However, with such a method, it is difficult to determine which similar product is applicable and predict an initial input amid fierce changes in life cycle.
In addition, there is another problem that a company has been repeating similar experiences but yet to make a specific use of those experiences. Still other problem is that while it takes time to cultivate professional marketing people, it is difficult to satisfy all in such an environment of today.
Among techniques for predicting an initial input or a share of a new product is a method based on a regression model which is disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 9-120395 (1997) and a method based on a questionnaire result on customers who purchased a product and a similar questionnaire-based evaluation result from in-house people which is disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2000-200260.